Political Year
With the approaching election which will be held in February 2024, this year will be a political year in which the next presidential and vice-presidential candidates will begin to contest. The Commission of General Election has announced that the final line-up of the candidates will be announced in October 2023.
Potential Recession
Based on the latest projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), that 1/3 of the world economy or 43% of world countries will experience an economic recession in 2023.
Referring to the 2023 Global Risk Report released by the World Economic Forum (WEF), the IMF projects that global economic growth is expected to slow down to 2.7 percent in 2023. This figure reflects that one-third of the world’s economy will face a technical recession.
In addition, the IMF predicts that global inflation will decline, from nearly 9 percent in 2022 to 6.5 percent in 2023 and 4.1 percent in 2024. Meanwhile, disinflation will be sharper in developed countries.
Geopolitical Situation
The year 2023 is still overshadowed by the geopolitical situation that has not subsided. Existing conflict situations can affect many things such as global security, financial integration, supply chains, and migration.
The geopolitical situation will also encourage central banks to aggressively raise interest rates to put the brakes on it.
Endemic Transition
The PPKM regulation was revoked by the government on December 30, 2022. The repeal of this regulation is Indonesia’s step in entering the transition process from pandemic to endemic. It is showing that Indonesia is quite optimist to face 2023 with a more active economic activities despite the pandemic situation.
By: Putu Radar Bahurekso
