During this pandemic time there are several scenarios that might occur depends on 2 important factors, those are how the public health response to the spread of the virus, and the response of economic policy.
The Effectiveness of the public health response in controlling the spread of COVID-19 will determine how the virus spread, will it recurrence again for the second batch or not. Speed and strength of recovery depends on whether policy moves can mitigate self-reinforcing recessionary dynamics.
The best scenario is virus can be contained or resolved and there will be strong growth rebound. For this case to happen there should be an effective control of virus spread within 2-3 months and strong policy responses prevent structural damage.
The worst case scenario is the pandemic is escalated and there will be a prolonged downturn without economic recovery. It will happen if the public health fails to prevent the spread of the virus and policies also fails to interevent. Self-reinforcing recession dynamics kick-in, widespread bankruptcies and credit defaults, also potential banking crisis.
by: Putu Radar Bahurekso